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allender
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« on: July 15, 2007, 03:19:49 AM » |
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Updated 14 February 2010. We have reports for 566 boxes, 8.09% of the 7000-box packaging run, and specific breaks for 24 cases.
I assume a total number of signed cards is about 4000, 14% above the 3500 expected in packs. Cel totals are 9x294, which is 26% above the amount expected in packs. "Overages" for replacements, damage, and non-pack distribution are 15% and 34% for costumes and props, respectively.
# reported - estimated total out of 4000 - signer
6 - 85 - Emma Watson as Hermione Granger (R)
10 - 175 - Rupert Grint as Ron Weasley (R)
13 - 175 - Daniel Radcliffe as Harry Potter (R)
14 - 175 - Tony Maudsley as the voice of Grawp
20 - 315 - Bonnie Wright as Ginny Weasley (R)
23 - 315 - Jason Isaacs as Lucius Malfoy (R)
23 - 315 - Evanna Lynch as Luna Lovegood (R)
24 - 315 - Jim McManus as Aberforth Dumbledore
27 - 380 - George Harris as Kingsley Shacklebolt
27 - 380 - Katie Leung as Cho Chang (R)
28 - 380 - Warwick Davis as Filius Flitwick (R)
35 - 495 - Matthew Lewis as Neville Longbottom (R)
36 - 495 - Michael Gambon as Albus Dumbledore (R)
The main "case clusters" observed so far are with the cels, where there have been only three choices: CFC1-CFC5-CFC8, CFC2-CFC4-CFC9, and CFC3-CFC6-CFC7. (Note that this is one each from 1-3, 4-6, and 7-9).
Out of 24 cases, 6 were "unique" and the others fell into 7 groups where two or more held identical combinations of high chase. This hints that Artbox has tried to avoid "clusters" of identical cases, or at least they have tried to mix them up for people who have bought multiple cases.
I assume that Artbox distributed the autographs so that there would be no more than one "major" signature pull per case. That would mean there are Harry cases, Ron cases, and Hermione cases. The only two signers that don't appear in a Harry or Ron or Hermione case are Grawp and Lucius, and those two sometimes are found together in cases that don't include the trio. One case didn't have any of these five signers. So I tentatively assume that there are about 300 cases that are led by autographs by the "trio", 300 cases led by Grawp and/or Lucius, and 100 cases populated with a miscellaneous selection.
None of the CFC3-CFC6-CFC7 cases so far have held a Harry or Ron or Hermione auto. Yes, I'm still batting zero on finding a case with one of the trio's autos from any HP release. ...
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« Last Edit: February 15, 2010, 12:58:23 AM by allender »
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Marlon
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2007, 11:31:29 AM » |
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Hello, Could you explain what the '4 - 100' in '4 - 100 - Daniel Radcliffe as Harry Potter (R)' means, please? Does this mean somewhere between 4 and 100 copies of the auto? I assume not, but I'm struggling to see any other meaning.  Thanks for your help, Marlon |
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The Razzer
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2007, 12:28:47 PM » |
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4 is the number reported in case breaks posted by shackers. 100 is the estimated number signed.  |
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cardz_house
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2007, 01:15:34 PM » |
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Interesting that Dumbledore is now the most common auto in this set. But I am not complaining as its way way much better than having a Flitwick auto in EVERY case that I have bought.
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gimli
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2007, 01:29:27 PM » |
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Of course as always this is just a very small percentage of the cases available and is mainly my break so it could just be that i got a high proportion in my cases of Dumbledore and there will be very few elsewher you never can tell.
as more breaks are posted it may well change
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allender
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« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2007, 02:08:44 PM » |
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Chris, your break is still about 55% of the totals, but Albus is the most common from everybody else too. Just for fun, here's what the predictions might look like if I removed all of your pulls. The ordering is about the same, which hints that the whole sample is "probably" meaningful. The only real item that catches the eye from your totals versus everybody else is that you seem to have received a bigger share of Ginny.
Oh, and the reports are mostly from Shackers, but I get a bit more information from emails, PMs, and another forum.
The "statistical error" in the middle of the pack is 2-3 if the sample is truly random. Of course, the first cases reported might have been from the part of the factory nearest to the loading dock.
# reported - projected total out of 4000 - signer (based on 161 non-Chidgey boxes)
3 - 105 - Daniel Radcliffe as Harry Potter (R)
2 - 105 - Emma Watson as Hermione Granger (R)
3 - 160 - Rupert Grint as Ron Weasley (R)
3 - 160 - Tony Maudsley as the voice of Grawp
3 - 160 - Bonnie Wright as Ginny Weasley (R)
6 - 350 - Jason Isaacs as Lucius Malfoy (R)
6 - 350 - Evanna Lynch as Luna Lovegood (R)
7 - 350 - George Harris as Kingsley Shacklebolt
7 - 350 - Jim McManus as Aberforth Dumbledore
8 - 350 - Warwick Davis as Filius Flitwick (R)
10 - 520 - Matthew Lewis as Neville Longbottom (R)
11 - 520 - Katie Leung as Cho Chang (R)
12 - 520 - Michael Gambon as Albus Dumbledore (R)
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« Last Edit: July 17, 2007, 02:28:23 PM by allender »
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gimli
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2007, 02:42:07 PM » |
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That is really interesting how my results only really changes the ginny which does hint that mostly the numbers from the top are right and I would guess that ginny is a more common auto and my break is quite an accurate account of the number of autos
I am just really supprised there are so many Dumbledores
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ztaylork
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« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2007, 02:44:44 PM » |
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My autograph numbers from five cases (2 more to come a little dissapointed not to hit one of the big three, but its all good : 0 - Daniel Radcliffe as Harry Potter (R) 0 - Emma Watson as Hermione Granger (R) 0 - Rupert Grint as Ron Weasley (R) 1 - Tony Maudsley as the voice of Grawp 3 - Bonnie Wright as Ginny Weasley (R) 5 - Jason Isaacs as Lucius Malfoy (R) 2 - Evanna Lynch as Luna Lovegood (R) 3 - George Harris as Kingsley Shacklebolt 2 - Jim McManus as Aberforth Dumbledore 2 - Warwick Davis as Filius Flitwick (R) 2 - Matthew Lewis as Neville Longbottom (R) 2 - Katie Leung as Cho Chang (R) 3 - Michael Gambon as Albus Dumbledore (R) |
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akimira
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« Reply #8 on: July 20, 2007, 04:56:34 PM » |
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Hallo.
I'm not sure if this is the right place to ask but I hope you don't mind if I post my question here.
I just would like to know what you think: Do I need all autograph cards plus all redemption cards from the set to get a complete master set of autographs?
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Roz
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« Reply #9 on: July 20, 2007, 06:50:11 PM » |
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No.
It's up to you what's in a master set - some people do collect the redemptions, but it's widely regarded as overkill - or at least it became widely regarded as overkill when GOFU had a redemption card for the Quad (we'd started to wonder after the GOF Ron auto!). Now with OOTP I'd definitely say not!
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Why's all the tea always gone?
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rns91294
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« Reply #10 on: July 20, 2007, 06:59:19 PM » |
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Not to mention that Artbox keeps the redemption cards when you send them in, unlike other companies who put a hole punch through it and send it back with your auto.
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terryweasley
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« Reply #11 on: July 21, 2007, 01:34:55 AM » |
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I think that would definitely be overkill not to mention very expensive. Redemption cards generally go for the same price as the actual autograph card since they can be redeemed. You would have to have really big pockets to be able to pay double for an autograph card. I don't know about you, but I can't afford that kind of obsession.
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akimira
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« Reply #12 on: July 21, 2007, 12:47:17 PM » |
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Thank you for your answers.
I really was hoping to get those answers from you since it's getting really expensive to buy so many cards twice...
So I will just put all my redemption cards together and send it to Artbox. Do you think I should send the cards with insurance?
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potter
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« Reply #13 on: July 21, 2007, 04:57:52 PM » |
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You will be better off getting your parcel insured, especially if you have some value in your package.
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meohmeohmy20
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« Reply #14 on: August 31, 2007, 04:39:49 PM » |
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My autograph numbers from 15 sealed boxes :
0 - Daniel Radcliffe as Harry Potter (R)
1 - Emma Watson as Hermione Granger (R)
0 - Rupert Grint as Ron Weasley (R)
0 - Tony Maudsley as the voice of Grawp
0 - Bonnie Wright as Ginny Weasley (R)
1 - Jason Isaacs as Lucius Malfoy (R)
1 - Evanna Lynch as Luna Lovegood (R)
2 - George Harris as Kingsley Shacklebolt
2 - Jim McManus as Aberforth Dumbledore
1 - Warwick Davis as Filius Flitwick (R)
2 - Matthew Lewis as Neville Longbottom (R)
0 - Katie Leung as Cho Chang (R)
1 - Michael Gambon as Albus Dumbledore (R)
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allender
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« Reply #15 on: September 01, 2007, 01:21:49 PM » |
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Was that one or two of the Aberforths? Your other post only showed one.  |
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meohmeohmy20
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« Reply #16 on: September 01, 2007, 04:26:46 PM » |
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yeah, that was only 1 through the boxes. I also got like 6 packs loose and got one.
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allender
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« Reply #17 on: February 15, 2010, 01:00:10 AM » |
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Minor update 14 February 2010, at the top of this thread. Reports are in for 566 boxes, or 8.09% of the packaging run, with 24 full-case reports.
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